A report from the UP School of Economics suggests an economic crash the size of Argentina (where banks closed and loss of public investment were in the billions) could happen in the Philippines -- in two years.

The warning is not from the chief economist of the London-based Standard Chartered Bank, who spoke early this year of a crisis similar to that which befell Argentina, but from 11 faculty members at the University of the Philippines School of Economics.

The UP economists themselves are not ruling out a Philippine crisis similar to that experienced by the Latin American country.

Argentina defaulted on its $88-billion debt in 2002, causing its currency to plunge, inflation to pick up, output to collapse and riots to break out in the streets. Political chaos ensued as a succession of presidents assumed office briefly.

Why so:

They noted that the national government's total debt stood at P3.36 trillion as of the end of 2003, or equivalent to 78 percent of the gross domestic product. The public sector debt, which includes the obligations of government-owned and controlled corporations, rises to more than 130 percent of GDP, the total value of goods produced and services rendered in the country.

The government expects a budget deficit of about P200 billion this year.

They said falling revenue and tax efforts were the main reason for the worsening deficit picture since 1997. The tax effort fell from a high of 17 percent of GDP in 1997 to only 12.5 percent by 2003.

In simple terms, we will generate more debt than income. And the government cannot operate on that. The economists recommend stringent measures, and more taxes.

My peso savings need to be moved -- I'm not betting on a turnaround, seeing that it will "require unprecedented cooperation and openness" (something foreign to policymakers in the country). Maybe living in Philly isn't all that bad.